林保華

“馬與非馬”論      林保華
 
中國歷史上的戰國時期，公孫龍的“白馬非馬論”是詭辯法的經典。台灣

2013 12 2《綠色參考》
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2013 12 1《綠色參考》
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2013 11 30《綠色參考》
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維吾爾之火燒到北京
林保華
 
　　十月二十八日，北京天安門廣場發生一輛來自新疆的吉普車闖入北京心臟地帶天安門城樓前行人道，撞倒中外遊客及民警，再撞向華表及金水橋護欄，繼而爆炸起火，造成五人死亡四十人受傷的悲劇，初步判斷是報復事件。

2013 11 29《綠色參考》
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Taiwan needs more than just rhetoric
By Paul Lin 林保華
The third plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 18th Central Committee may have called for reform, but once the meeting was over, the focus was placed on military expansion. Of the 5,000 characters in the meeting report, a mere 153 were dedicated to military issues, which only goes to show that one should pay attention to what the CCP does and not what it says. It goes without saying that nothing was said about all the military issues involved in setting up a national security council.
The only thing that connected the session to military expansion were the Chinese stock indices. When the session closed on Nov. 12, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.83 percent while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.03 percent. Despite that, military industry and riot control concept shares kept going up, some of them even rising to the daily limit. At that time, the report had still not been published, but well-connected people had already begun to play the stock market.
As expected, China immediately announced a series of military activities. On Nov. 15, the military drills taking place in the Bohai Gulf and the Yellow Sea were extended from Nov. 14 and Nov. 15 to Nov. 22. This included exercises in Shandong Province aimed at attacking residential areas in cities and towns on islands. It is obvious that these targeted Japan and Taiwan. On Nov. 18, Beijing called an army-wide meeting dealing with logistical preparations for military conflict. Is Beijing preparing for war?
On Nov. 20, Wang Hongguang (王洪光), former deputy commander of the Nanjing Military Region, expressed his animosity to Taiwan in an article in the state-run Global Times newspaper. In response to the delivery of six Apache helicopters from the US to Taiwan, Wang said that the People’s Liberation Army is fully capable of dealing with Apache helicopters.
On Saturday, China’s defense ministry announced the East China Sea air defense identification zone, which includes the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台). Called the Senkakus in Japan, the islands are claimed by Taiwan, China and Japan. According to the announcement, aircraft flying over the zone must identify themselves. Failure to do so could result in military action.
Japan, the US and South Korea have reacted strongly to China’s announcement. The US condemned it, saying it upset the “status quo.” China’s foreign ministry responded by saying that it was not allowed to make irresponsible remarks. It also said that it would announce further zones when the time was right. It is easy see that above all, this will affect countries bordering the South China Sea such as Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia.
China’s military expansion is becoming a serious threat to peace in Asia. According to Leninist theory, the rise of imperialism will lead to war due to demands for a redistribution of resources and redrawing spheres of influence. China’s actions are following in the footsteps of past imperialist countries.
Faced with China’s neo-imperialist military threat, will the US follow in the footsteps of former British prime minister Neville Chamberlain, whose appeasement policies failed to prevent the outbreak of World War II, or will it make a decisive move and nip any conflict in the bud?
Faced with China’s provocations, will President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) continue to talk about “peace dividends” and lull the Taiwanese public and its allies the US and Japan into believing that things are just dandy? Will the lackeys in the Ma administration go along with Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits Chairman Chen Deming (陳德銘) and hide China’s ambitions to annex Taiwan behind empty rhetoric?

2013 11 28《綠色參考》
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《林保華專欄》中共三中全會後的軍事擴張
中共十八屆三中全會聲稱改革，但是會後做出來的事情，卻是把軍事擴張放在首位。在全會公報洋洋五千字中，軍事部分只有一五三個字。可見觀察中共，不在於他說什麼，最重要是看他做什麼。當然，設立國家安全委員會的事宜，就包含了許多軍事內容，只是沒有披露出來。
唯一在當時把三中全會與軍事擴張掛上鉤的，是中國的股市。十一月十二日全會閉幕那天，滬綜指全日急跌一．八三％，深成指數更跌二．○三％。不過軍工、公安防暴概念股不但逆市大升，部分還升至停板。那時公報還沒有發表，但是近水樓台者已經在股市操作了。
果然，中國立即推出一系列軍事活動。十一月十五日，共軍在渤海和黃海軍演，從原定的十四至十五日兩天，擴大到十五日至二十二日共八天。其中，山東省進行代號「泰山．精銳-2013C」實兵對抗演習，包括對「島上城鎮（居民地）」的進攻戰鬥。目標顯然就是日本與台灣。

2013 11 27《綠色參考》
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2013 11 26《綠色參考》
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2013 11 25《綠色參考》
（林保華主編；提供林保華等人的評論與綠媒以外的信息。）
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