林保華

《林保華專欄》買辦政治與小農意識
台灣的兩黨政治，主要體現在國民黨與民進黨的互動上面，兩黨代表不同的利益階層，反映在目前台灣的政情，更關係到台灣未來的前途。
一個多月前，王思為教授寫了一篇《買辦政治 已大舉襲台》的文章http://www.appledaily.com.tw/appledaily/article/headline/20140113/35575443/)，發人深省。他指出，當中國「想藉由代理人直接影響高層政治決策，進行統戰最後一里路的此刻，我們是否已經準備好迎接一個買辦政治時代的到來？」

“太陽”是威權文化餘緒    林保華
柯文哲的民進黨“兩個太陽”之說，展現他講話的風趣，但是也無心的對
民進黨造成一定傷害，因為媒體抓住“兩個太陽”不斷操弄民進黨的內部
事務，有的更藉此挑撥離間，以求達到分化民進黨的目的。

Ma treads a beggar’s path to China
By Paul Lin 林保華
More than a year ago, Former Taipei EasyCard Corp chairman Sean Lien (連勝文), a Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Central Standing Committee member and potential candidate for November’s Taipei mayoral election, ridiculed President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) by saying that with the economy so bad, there is nothing so great about being the “grandmaster of a beggar’s clan.” Average Taiwanese have been turned into beggars as a result of Ma’s incompetence at ruling the country, but as chairman of the KMT, which has hundreds of billions of New Taiwan dollars in party assets, control over national resources and endless political contributions from corporations, Ma is still a very wealthy man.
“Begging” is normally understood as a way of gaining money, but what has been most interesting about Ma lately is the way he has become a “political beggar” seeking an “audience” with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平). This is evident from the way Mainland Affairs Council Minister Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) acted during his recent trip to China.
First, before visiting China, Wang had to accept China’s condition of three forbidden categories of topics — politics, the Republic of China’s (ROC) title and status, and anything related to human rights, democracy or the rule of law. He did not even protest against the denial of visas to some Taiwanese media outlets.
Second, Wang had to obtain prior permission from China when he talked about the ROC during a visit to Sun Yat-sen’s (孫逸仙) mausoleum in Nanjing. In addition, although not every detail of a speech Wang delivered at Nanjing University was screened by China beforehand, China was informed of the more sensitive parts of the speech. This is why when provoked by a professor during the speech, Wang was unable to fight back — because he had not discussed his response with China beforehand.
Third, because Wang conspired with China prior to the second meeting with Zhang at the Peace Hotel in Shanghai, calling the meeting “a social visit,” no report on this meeting was submitted to the legislature. During that two-hour meeting, the two did talk about Ma and Xi meeting — the real issue behind their meeting.
Fourth, in Shanghai, Wang said cross-strait relations are not a form of international relations; a highly contested idea in Taiwan. He was fawning on China by saying this and merely said his “superior” was very clear, but did not have the guts to use the word “president.”
Fifth, after Wang’s return to Taiwan, Ma immediately issued an order that the cross-strait service trade agreement must be passed next month. Was this one of the conditions following Wang’s beggar’s trip to China?
In addition, after coming into office, Ma has gradually abandoned the so-called “1992 consensus” and “one China, with different interpretations” ideas that he had used to mislead Taiwanese and replaced them with the “one China” idea that relations are not state-to-state in nature.
What has Ma obtained in exchange for sacrificing Taiwanese sovereignty and universal values to arrange a meeting with Xi? China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Minister Zhang Zhijun (張志軍) addressed Wang as “minister,” but did not mention the Mainland Affairs Council in his meeting with Wang and Chinese media outlets did not even call him “minister.” Judging from China’s intransigence when it comes to official titles, how much of Taiwan’s sovereignty and dignity will Ma have to sacrifice to bring about a Ma-Xi meeting?

反貪變成掃黃，老虎改為野雞
中國的政局發生微妙而又重要的變化，那就是本來聲色俱厲的反貪打老虎
，突然變成掃黃捉野雞。
由於央視以東莞作為掃黃的開刀對象，因此最早有認為是針對團派大將、
現任廣東省委書記的政治局委員胡春華。然而東莞獲得“性都”的稱號並
非開始於才到任一年多的胡春華，而是持續幾代省委書記的努力結果，包
括上一任的政治局常委李長春與現任政治局常委的張德江。加上掃黃從東
莞擴大到九個省份，顯見針對胡春華的說法並不正確。

〈林保華專欄〉政治丐幫
 
一年多前，連勝文挖苦馬英九總統說：「經濟不好，當丐幫幫主也沒啥光榮的。」台灣老百姓被治國無能的馬英九搞成丐幫是事實；但是馬英九做為國民黨主席，擁有千百億黨產，並掌控國家資源，財團的政治獻金又源源而來，因此馬英九還是大財主。
 

雜種追尋祖先
這次過年在懶散中度過。唯一的成績是尋找我的母系祖先有些成果。
記得2003年應群策會的邀請，從美國來台灣開會。當時連戰在美國說他是“純粹中國人”。我說，我是“雜種”。“雜種”是中國罵人的話，我卻認為是讚揚之詞。因為中國人喜歡近親繁殖，李家莊、馬家莊等等都是小農經濟下宗法社會的產物，產下一些白痴。反而是雜種，漂亮又聰明。小時候印尼的荷蘭人與印尼人的雜種很漂亮，澳門的葡萄牙人與廣東人的雜種也漂亮；台灣有原住民，與荷蘭、西班牙、日本、漢人的雜種應該更多，也更加聰明、漂亮，如果不是中華文化的荼毒，台灣理應創造出更多奇蹟。
我追尋祖先，並非“祭祖”，他們的好壞與我無關，不論是江洋大盜還是民族英雄；只是我要寫回憶錄，需要進一步廓清我的身世，我這個雜種到底有多雜？以前太不在乎，老媽在世時，沒有多問，留下了太多的空白。
1955年我回中國時，填寫的檔案表格，都填上我是“漢族”。一直到1976年回到香港，老媽才對我說，她是滿族。她姓國，是皇上的賜姓，外祖父、外祖母因為很早就去世，我竟連姓名都沒有問。按照儒家的說法，該是“不孝子孫”了。但是我的外曾祖父卻是晚清歷史上的名人，也因為他，老媽到我離開中國到了香港後，才透露這個“機密”。
去年，我的女兒從維基上找到資料，說我這位外曾祖父的祖父，也是歷史名人，但這一支祖先其實不是滿族，雖是正黃旗，卻是蒙古族。所以去年底在香港看到北京出版的《滿學研究》，有幾篇清初滿蒙關係的學術文章就買下來了，趁這次放假，拋開政治議題，看了一下這些文章。
由於“統戰”需要，大清開國初期，高層就出現許多滿蒙通婚的現象，因此我也不排斥有滿族的血統。本來追尋祖先只追到道光年間，但是在上網搜索以後，似乎連努爾哈赤時代的祖先都找到了，只是“里”與“爾”一字之差，是否滿文譯成漢字而出現的誤差？還需要慢慢再考證。
不論怎樣，我這個“雜種”是肯定了，漢滿蒙回藏“五族共和”的“中華民族”中，，我佔了三個。如果中國推行民主，一族一票，我就有三票，怪不得老共怕我。我與藏人也十分友好，可以結成統一戰線。有一千萬人口的維吾爾族，沒有被孫大砲列入“五族共和”裡，因此“造反有理”；他們不是回族，但是有同一個宗教信仰。
不過我這個雜種，是弱勢族群，還鬥不過共產黨那個馬列與儒法結合的怪胎。革命尚未成功，雜種仍須努力！

林保華︰台灣新聞自由倒退 加深香港化
〔記者楊芙宜、吳柏軒／台北報導〕政治評論家林保華昨表示，中國這次拒絕包括台灣等兩家媒體記者入境採訪「王張會」，馬政府迄今仍不敢提出關切或抗議，顯示其對新聞自由倒退無動於衷，無疆界記者組織報告不啻再度印證台灣地位在馬政府帶領下，逐漸「香港化」的趨勢。
林保華指出，香港是中國的一部分，新聞自由度倒退可以理解，例如近期港媒「信報」、「明報」總編輯換人，就是因為經營者在中國做生意，為討好北京緣故，而親北京的「中國時報」經營者旺旺集團在中國經商，擺明主張要與中國統一，也是如出一轍。

王張會前夕之詭異事件

施政報告的福利開支    林保華
特首梁振英雖然民望一直下墜，北京也對他失去信心，但是“死狼當活狼
醫”，他總是要尋找機會翻身。進入新的一年，他借發表施政報告的機會
，大事派糖，藉以挽回民心。

Will Ma follow unity or division?
By Paul Lin 林保華
The founder of the New Citizens’ Movement (新公民運動), Xu Zhiyong (許志永) — a legal academic based in Beijing who was detained by the authorities in July last year — was sentenced to four years in prison last month, two weeks after his child was born.
Four key members of the movement are still on trial and the movement is facing total defeat at the hands of the Chinese authorities.
Although the group was only calling for a peaceful transformation to constitutional government and the development of civic society, its members were all arrested soon after demanding that top Chinese officials declare their personal assets.
At the same time, democratically elected President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is flirting with Xi Jinping (習近平), president of authoritarian China, while Mainland Affairs Council Minister Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) is set to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) Minister Zhang Zhijun (張志軍), in China on Tuesday.
Ma’s strong desire to hold a meeting with Xi means he is ready to do anything Beijing asks, and this is worrying many Taiwanese — will Taiwan eventually be locked up in a Chinese-built cage just like Xu?
As Ma attempts to evade legislative oversight of cross-strait affairs, Wang and Premier Jiang Yi-huah (江宜樺) have repeatedly stressed that the council minister’s China visit will abide by the principles of equality and dignity, but have Ma’s Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Xi’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) already reached a secret agreement?
According to media reports, the Chinese side has requested that Wang not mention three things during his trip: democracy and human rights; political issues; and the title and president of the Republic of China.
Yet why is he visiting China if he cannot talk about any of these issues?
Is he going there to eat glutinous rice balls as he celebrates the country’s Lantern Festival and realizes the happy reunion of the KMT and the CCP?
If so, he will fall prey to a trap set by the CCP’s united-front work.
Ironically, the CCP’s three taboos for the Wang-Zhang summit are also its Achilles’ heel.
The title and office of president of the Republic of China highlights Taiwan’s sovereignty, while democracy and human rights are universal values that extend beyond sovereignty.
As for political issues, perhaps Beijing is worried that talk on such matters could be extended to sovereignty or human rights, but if Wang only talks about unification, that would certainly be a welcome political issue.
In the face of Chinese pressure, sovereignty and human rights are Taiwan’s best weapons in cross-strait talks.
In Zhang’s new year’s greeting published in the TAO’s Cross-strait Relations (兩岸關係) magazine last month, he first expressed hope that the two sides would further consolidate political mutual trust.
However, in the face of China’s Internet censorship and Xu’s imprisonment, how could Taiwan — if it really is a democracy — come to trust Beijing even more?
If Ma does not show support for Xu now and if Wang does not mention the case in Beijing, they will be betraying democracy and the Chinese people.
Late last month, Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) said that Taiwan is an independent and sovereign state while on a visit to Europe. He was stating the objective truth and there was nothing wrong with what he said. Despite this, TAO spokesman Ma Xiaoguang (馬曉光) accused Su of going against the historical trend of peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait on the basis of the “one China” policy.

Rumors of Sino-Japanese conflict
By Paul Lin 林保華
This year is the 120th anniversary of the start of the First Sino-Japanese War, a war that was to see a newly invigorated post-Meiji Restoration Japan defeat China, which had hitherto been the most formidable power in the region. Now the pendulum of power is swinging in the other direction and it is China’s turn to be in the ascendant.
China, ever-mindful of its century of shame and ignominy at the hands of other powers, has started making provocative overtures, but Japan is refusing to back down. Could this year also be the year that sees another conflagration erupt between these two old rivals?
According to Chinese military reports, two foreign fighter jets entered China’s East China Sea air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Friday last week, the first day of the Lunar New Year. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force responded by scrambling two Sukhoi Su-30 fighters. The two sets of fighters played cat-and-mouse for three hours before the Sukhois finally expelled the outsiders, the reports said.
Following the incident, PLA Major General Luo Yuan (羅援), a known hawk, said the two foreign fighters were Japanese and criticized Japan for its timing, choosing to exploit the most important day of the Chinese holiday calendar. Tokyo declined to comment.
Chinese commentators on the Internet are undecided as to whether the reports are true. There was a similar report, almost word for word, exactly a year ago — a report of a couple of foreign fighter jets entering “a certain airspace.” The only difference between the closing remarks of last year’s report compared with this year’s was that the “Year of the Snake” was altered to the “Year of the Horse.”
Clearly, the authorities in Beijing have already decided that reports of enemy incursions as the Lunar New Year break commences are to be part of the routine round of propaganda, designed to fan nationalist sentiment aimed at an undisclosed foe.
So what if the Japanese fighter planes entered the zone, even supposing that they had? Neither Japan, nor the US, nor South Korea have recognized the recently and unilaterally announced zone, so fighters from those countries can fly through it as and when they please. This is not the Vietnam War; there has been no agreement to accommodate the Lunar New Year celebrations that needs to be bilaterally observed.
For Luo to brand Tokyo, as he has on this occasion, as a “troublemaker,” really is a case of the pot calling the kettle black. Which side announced the ADIZ, requiring other nations to inform Beijing of any plans to have their aircraft fly through it and for all detailed flight plans to be provided beforehand?
Beijing has tried this in the past, accusing Taipei of making trouble and trying to drive a wedge between it and the US. Now, China is attempting to do the same to Tokyo. It is a consistent strategy Beijing uses to isolate the US.
The Sino-Japanese diplomatic spat made it all the way to Germany on the second day of the Lunar New Year. Fu Ying (傅瑩), chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee of China’s National People’s Congress, attended the 50th Munich Security Conference on Saturday, where she roundly accused the Japanese leadership of denying Japanese atrocities committed during World War II, causing Sino-Japanese relations to sink to a new low.
Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Fumio Kishida responded by saying that his country had “looked squarely at history” and its role in the war, that it deeply regretted its colonial rule in Asia and that it was committed to a new route in the post-war period as a peaceful nation.

習近平已經可以獨裁一切嗎？
 
去年11月的18屆3中全會，宣佈成立了國家安全委員會與深化改革領導小
組，都由習近平親自出任第一把手。前者偏重政治、軍事、外交，後者偏重
經濟、社會、民生，等於習近平囊括了各個領域的權力，確立了他的獨裁。
不管這個獨裁是毛澤東式的“無法無天”，還是有些人所期望的“開明專制
”。
 
觀察習近平有沒有絕對的權力，或從這兩個機構的人事組成可以看出來。
一般來說，宣佈機構成立的時候，基本人事應該有了眉目。但是情況不然
。真正的人事，是在兩個多月後的一月下旬才成軍，說明期間經過許多的
折衷協調，而不是習近平的一言九鼎。
 
尤其中間傳出習近平看中中紀委書記的王岐山，因為他的“刀把子”有震
懾作用，協助習近平的權力集中。尤其是傳說連深化改革領導小組的副組
長也不給總理李克強出任，等於完全化解17大時決定的習近平與李克強“
雙核心”模式，來凸顯習近平的絕對權力。
 
但是名單正式宣佈的時候，李克強是這兩個機構排名第一的副主席與副組
長，即使現在已經不存在“雙核心”，但是還是尊重政治局常委的排名順
序。其他五個政治局常委中，張德江是國安委的副主席，劉雲山、張高麗
則是深化改革領導小組的副組長。反而王岐山在這兩個機構都沒有份兒，
是否反映了他的強勢肅貪得罪了許多人，也引起許多貪官污吏的恐懼而群
起抵制。但也可能是許多人還希望尊重集體領導的倫理，不願意看到習近
平成為第二個毛澤東。如果是這樣，更是說明習近平還不到獨裁一切的程
度，尤其要與貪官污吏做許多妥協。
 
習近平與貪官污吏的妥協，還可以從徐才厚可能的軟著陸看出來。徐才厚
是前中央軍委副主席，是軍內大貪官、總後勤部副部長谷俊山的後臺。在
總後勤部政委劉源的強力主導下，穀俊山終於落馬，徐才厚後來也失勢。
去年3月北京兩會，送別國家軍委時，他這位行將卸任的副主席都無法參
與臨別秋波。但去年9月國務院的國慶晚宴他又亮相；今年1月20日，
與軍委主席習近平一起，出席了軍委領導慰問老幹部的新春文藝晚會。由
于這次是作為習近平“跟班”的形式出現，顯然意味著由習近平為他背書。
 
有報導說，徐才厚因為退了贓款而獲得寬大處理。問題是如果退了贓款就
沒有事情了，還有對貪官污吏懲罰的意義嗎？其他貪官污吏可以有同等待
遇嗎？顯然，他是高級將領，底下還有許多羽翼，後面還有江澤民，習近
平的權勢還不足以視他們如無物。最近北京衛戌司令員換人，可見習近平
很關注他的安全問題。也或者，習近平在感情上還不能與貪官污吏完全切
斷，因為紅二代的貪官污吏，比徐才厚嚴重的不知有多少，許多是習近平
的哥兒們。
 
習近平因為吃慶豐包子而出現一堆個人崇拜的言行使人噁心，例如辟為旅
遊點，春節的年餐、他坐的地方圈起來作為“聖地”，甚至有人為他譜曲
謳歌。習近平沒有出來阻止這種行動，顯示他感到需要“大樹特樹”自己
的權威。那是對自己缺乏信心之故。
 
但是最嚴重的恐怕還是軍事問題，他是國安委主席，但是軍內鷹派不斷發
出戰爭叫囂，例如前國家主席李先念的女婿劉亞洲將軍說：毛澤東建國初
期打了幾場勝仗，對手迄今不敢輕舉妄動；鄧小平以一場戰爭為改革開放
打開局面，贏得30年戰略機遇，從而歸結出“凡打過仗就平穩，不敢打的
地方鬧得最歡”的結論。年初二的《解放軍報》發表署名文章說，“戰爭
不會等到過年後才開打”。在這個問題上，習近平如何運用他的權力，事
關區域穩定與世界和平而更需國際關注。
（以上是自由亞洲電臺特約評論員林保華所做的評論）2014.2.5