我的一生人 林保華
一生人﹐可以是不同地方﹑各種各樣的人﹐我尤其是這樣的人。 我出生在中國重慶使朋友誤會我是中國重慶人﹐其實是中國福建人。原因老爸是 福建人﹐老媽卻是上海出生的滿州人﹐所以命中註定我不可能做純粹中國人﹐而 是雲遊四方的雜種人。別看不起雜種人﹐未來中國的總書記可能就是雜種人。(粵 語“習總”諧音“雜種”。)

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Trump’s East Asia diplomacy successes
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2017.2.18

Through a telephone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and an in-person meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, US President Donald Trump has just completed his first real contact with two of East Asia’s main players — and the world’s two largest economies after the US itself — since he assumed the presidency.

The importance of these engagements goes without saying. However, it is not clear how much China has gained.

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Trump’s mistakes and the US’ role in Asia
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2017.2.12

As expected, as soon as US President Donald Trump took office, the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Trump also lashed out at China, Germany, Japan, Mexico and other countries. However, in his random attacks, Trump made two mistakes: He failed to distinguish major problems from minor, and he failed to distinguish political friends from foes.

By not distinguishing between major and minor issues, he failed to recognize that those countries hurt US business interests to different degrees and should be treated with different policies. The same applies to political relationships.

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Burden of security as pro-China tactics rise
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2017.1.12

When Hong Kong lawmakers Edward Yiu (姚松炎), Nathan Law (羅冠聰) and Eddie Chu (朱凱迪), and Hong Kong democracy campaigner Joshua Wong (黃之鋒) visited Taiwan on Friday last week at the invitation of the New Power Party (NPP) they were attacked and followed by Chinese patriots from Hong Kong and Taiwan.

The protesters focused on Law and Wong, who were at the front of the “Umbrella movement,” are internationally active and are seen as “traitors” by Chinese unionists.

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Chinese provocations hide its fear
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2017.1.4

If China wants to pick a fight with the US, the most vulnerable time for the US would be before the White House handover. However, China does not dare to actually pick a fight, so it is doing its best to be provocative to show that it is the boss and satisfy its own people’s vanity.

The most obvious action occurred in South China Sea, in the waters near Subic Bay in the Philippines, where it seized an underwater drone from right under the nose of a US surveillance vessel, despite warnings to stop.

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Taipei plays role in Sino-US ties
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.12.21

Regarding the future of Sino-US relations, let us refer to two passages from The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower by Michael Pillsbury, an American China expert: “On the right are US defense hawks, as well as trade protectionists such as [US president-elect] Donald Trump. These are the people who are to be ‘frozen out’ by the Chinese government and marginalized wherever possible,” and “It has long been known among China scholars that the people most trusted to report on China are those academics, journalists and writers who have been denied visas into the country.”

Trump and his national security team belong to this group.

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Preparing for Chinese retaliation
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.12.10

The telephone conversation between President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and US president-elect Donald Trump did not happen without planning. This is the unavoidable conclusion after reading Trump’s constant tweets in response to criticism from US media and to refute the clamoring Chinese media.

The call took the world by surprise and showed that Trump is not afraid to flout tradition, while he does not think of China as a regular country, but rather a rogue state that needs a lesson. To make the point, he put the spotlight on Taiwan for all the world to see.

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Who will rise to replace the US?
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.11.26

US president-elect Donald Trump announced that his first task on entering the

White House would be to withdraw from the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership

,

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Reshaping military relations with the US
By Paul Lin 林保華

Taipei Times  2016.9.22

China’s co-opting of six Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and two independent local government leaders and the change in the relationship between the US and the Philippines are creating the conditions required to strengthen the military relationship between the US and Taiwan.

Beijing has co-opted these pan-blue leaders in a vain attempt at using the so-called “1992 consensus” to “colonize” and split Taiwan. It is a serious threat to national security and Taiwan must respond.

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China aims to divide and conquer
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.8.17

With US presidential nominees Hillary Rodham Clinton and Donald Trump battling it out for the top job, the US lacks the energy and focus to take care of international affairs; the last thing Washington wants at the moment is for a war to flare up.

This explains the White House’s muted response to the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s verdict on the South China dispute between China and the Philippines: It confined itself to calling for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and warning each side to refrain from doing anything that might intensify the conflict.

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Tsai Ing-wen faces tough road to reform
By Paul Lin 林保華

Taipei Times  2016.7.30

President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) government has been dealing with a host of complex national affairs, both expected and unexpected, testing its ability. The public has high expectations of Tsai’s government, but they should also have an understanding of its difficulties, because it is the first time that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is implementing large-scale reform of the old system.

Thanks to its peaceful democratic revolution, Taiwan has avoided bloodshed, but a side effect has been a difficulty in implementing reforms, as it has been necessary to follow the procedures of the existing system, such as the handling of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) assets. Although the legislature recently passed the Act Governing the Handling of Ill-gotten Properties by Political Parties and Their Affiliate Organizations (政黨及其附隨組織不當取得財產處理條例), implementing the act could bring difficulties, in particular when it comes to the required cooperation of the judiciary.

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Anti-US reaction no aid in sea spat
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.7.23

The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling on the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines has had a detrimental effect on Chinese interests. The tribunal’s ruling on Tuesday last week set off a hysterical anti-US reaction in China — the product of Beijing’s deliberate policy of keeping its public misinformed.

In Taiwan, some individuals have also been fanning the flames of anti-US sentiment, saying that Taiwan has been sold out by Washington.

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Ruling threatens Xi’s tenuous hold
By Paul Lin 林保華

Taipei Times  2016.7.15

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has issued its ruling over a case brought by the Philippines regarding rights in the South China Sea. The ruling upheld all the complaints made by the Philippines.

China’s actions ahead of the ruling — such as a large-scale live-fire drill in the South China Sea and attacks by academics and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) media outlets, as well as investing big sums to divide or buy off ASEAN and asking other countries to speak on its behalf — have shown that the ruling is not just the piece of “scrap paper” that Beijing claims.

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Military needs to pull itself together
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.7.10

The accidental launching of a Hsiung Feng III missile exposed the problems that exist in Taiwan’s military. Although an investigation into the incident has not been completed, its outcome would basically adhere to one of two possibilities: Either military discipline is extremely lax, or the incident was the result of political factors, such as officers’ ideology or communist infiltration.

Regardless, the “one China” principle has led to low morale and a lack of aim in the military, and because of the remaining vestiges of the ties between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the military, the military no longer knows who it is fighting for.

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US key to Tsai’s cross-strait policy
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taibei Tiames 2016.7.3

With her visit to Central and South America, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has initiated her “pragmatic diplomacy,” but her transit stop in Miami, Florida, stole the spotlight.

About 145km south of Florida is Cuba, whose air space Tsai flew through on her way to Panama. Not long ago, “the earth moved and the mountains shook” in Cuba when US President Barack Obama became the first US president in 55 years to visit Havana since the two nations severed ties in 1961. Did this act as encouragement for Tsai?

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Tsai’s new policy and Taiwan’s position
By Paul Lin 林保華

Taipei Times  2016.5.30

In her inaugural address, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) talked about Taiwan’s role in regional stability, the international community and cross-strait relations and pledged to deepen Taiwan’s relations with the US, Japan and European nations. She also gave priority to the “new southbound policy” — and since the New Southbound Policy Office is to be run by the Presidential Office rather than the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the importance of the policy must not be ignored.

Talking about the policy, Tsai said: “We will broaden exchanges and cooperation with regional neighbors in areas such as technology, culture and commerce, and expand in particular our dynamic relationships with ASEAN and India.”

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‘Cold peace’ a likely stable future
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.5.28

It was already quite certain before President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) gave her inaugural address on Friday last week that she would not use it to accept the so-called “1992 consensus,” even as threats from China and the gang of sellouts around former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) continued right until the last moment.

What many academics and experts are talking about is what will emerge in cross-strait relations now that Tsai is president. Even the Chinese government is thinking about its policies regarding Taiwan. Only grovelers like Ma are still bogged down in the mire of the “1992 consensus.”

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China’s sly tricks show its lack of confidence
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.4.19
Early last month, the UN Security Council voted to toughen its sanctions on North Korea. Due to worries that China would be threatened if the US deploys the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in South Korea or even “decapitates” North Korea, Beijing this time decided to support the sanctions.

The move angered Pyongyang so much that the government-controlled media condemned not only “American imperialism,” but also a “major power” that is so concerned with saving face and status that it will not even stop at severing a “friendship sealed in blood” as it tried to secretly reach an agreement that suppresses “justice and truth.”

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Economy should concern China
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Tomes 2016.4.13

On March 31, international credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook for China’s credit rating from “stable” to “negative.” Moody’s had already done this on March 2.

On April 1, General Yao Yudong (姚余棟), the director the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Research Institute of Finance and Banking, said in a speech: “From the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2018, China will enter a new normal of prosperity.”

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Tsai has a gentle way belying her inner power
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.4.4

Within two weeks, president-elect Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) visited both the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, a developer of advanced weapon systems, and the Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation, a developer of aerospace and defense products. She gave talks showing expertise during both visits. These visits demonstrate that this woman can safeguard national security.

Taiwan might have disputes of ownership over certain islands and reefs with Japan and Vietnam, but it has a greater dispute over national sovereignty with China, which is seeking to annex Taiwan, so these visits were clearly pointed.

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Washington bristles, China cowers
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.3.22

The US-China relationship sits atop four powder kegs: the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea; with the South China Sea the most likely cause of a direct confrontation between the two nations.

The dynamics of the relationship are changing; this time Washington is serious about confronting Beijing. As a result, China’s leaders have been forced to swallow their pride and make hasty peace initiatives to prevent conflict.

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