林保華

Chinese army on a war footing
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.2.21

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平)

nerves were likely stretched to breaking

point over the Lunar New Year period: There

were jitters over China’s financial system

and tension over the possible outbreak of

war. The latter is the most hair-raising of

possibilities for Xi, since a war would

cause international capital to flee to the

relative safety of the US dollar and set

off another catastrophic fall to the value

of the yuan. Luckily, all remains calm.

On Feb. 7, Chinese-language news agency

Bowen Press, quoting a source in

Zhongnanhai, reported that Xi issued orders

that the seven members of the Chinese

Communist Party’s (CCP) Politburo Standing

Committee were not allowed to take time off

over the Lunar New Year period.

Further, for the first time in his role as

chairman of the Military Commission, Xi

signed the first order to put the People’s

Liberation Army (PLA) on a war alert

following recent military reforms. The PLA

’s central military area has since Feb. 7

entered a “level two” state of battle

readiness. This is the first time that the

PLA has been on a war footing since Xi

initiated a sweeping program of reforms to

the Chinese military.

The purpose is to send a clear message to

hostile nations: China is bolstering its

defenses, so do not try to launch a

surprise attack. The central military area

is the most secure, since it is surrounded

and protected by military areas. Therefore,

Beijing has been moved from the northern

area to the central area. At present, the

north, south, east and west military areas

have not been raised to battle readiness;

only the central area has.

This psychological warfare is aimed at the

US. Beijing is sending a message to

Washington that it is ready for the

eventuality of a US bombardment of its

capital.

During the Lunar New Year, China comes

together in a nationwide celebration.

Xi was apparently worried the US would make

use of a period when China’s defenses were

down to launch a surprise attack and

inflict heavy losses on the PLA, whose

internal units are in a state of disarray

due to the ongoing military reform process.

To deter an attack, the newly formed

ballistic missile division conducted a rare

live firing exercise during the holiday

period.

On China’s national day in 1969, during

the Cultural Revolution, Beijing was in a

similar state of battle readiness. In April

that year, the CCP held its Ninth National

Congress. To effect a temporary respite to

the civil war brought about by the Cultural

Revolution, the party leadership had

engineered a conflict with the USSR over

Damansky Island (Zhenbao Island, 珍寶島) in

March to unite Chinese against a common

foe.

However, the move strained relations with

the USSR to the point where, in August that

year, the Soviet Army completely

annihilated a PLA patrol unit on the

Xinjiang border.

Chinese leader Mao Zedong (毛澤東),

concerned that the USSR would invade China,

issued a directive that the nation should

“prepare for war.”

It was for this reason that Mao entered

into an alliance with the US to defeat the

USSR, which later led to then-US president

Richard Nixon’s visit to China.

It was Mao’s designated successor, General

Lin Biao (林彪), who issued “Order No. 1”

to put the PLA on a war footing in case of

an attack by the USSR, although Lin was

subsequently accused by Mao of plotting a

coup against the government. Detailed

information on this incident can be found

in the article “Lin Biao’s emergency

directive, the full story” (林彪「緊急指示

」前后), published last year in the

November edition of the Chinese-language

journal China Through the Ages (炎黃春秋).

The 1969 national day celebration coincided

with the 20th anniversary of the founding

of the People’s Republic of China.

At the time of the inspection of the troops

in front of the Gate of Heavenly Peace, Lin

had already personally deployed troops to

the north, northeastern and northwestern

military regions of the country to prepare

for war. A special guard had been stationed

outside a lift in the Gate of Heavenly

Peace to ensure that Mao and the politburo

leaders could be swiftly evacuated. In

addition, a helicopter was on standby

inside the Forbidden City, on a stretch of

open ground adjacent to the Meridian Gate.

The purpose of these preparations was to

ensure that the leaders could be whisked

away in seven to nine minutes, since it was

estimated that it is how long it would take

for a missile fired from the nearest

military base in the USSR to reach Beijing.

Moving back to the present, two unusual

events took place during this year’s Lunar

New Year holiday.

First, on Feb. 7, North Korea launched a

long-range rocket, officially termed an

“Earth observation satellite,” but widely

suspected to be cover for the testing of an

intercontinental ballistic missile capable

of reaching the US.

Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun

conjectured the US would launch an attack

on North Korean military installations.

North Korea is used by Beijing as a proxy

to resist the US, but will it continue to

defend North Korea against the US?

The other incident over the New Year period

was Hong Kong’s so-called “fishball

revolution.” Hong Kong Chief Executive

Leung Chun-ying (梁振英) has been creating

a lot of problems for Xi of late, but this

one, at least, is unlikely to blow up into

a war.

Paul Lin is a political commentator.

Translated by Edward Jones