China is a much bigger threat to US
than Russia
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.6.3
US President Donald Trump is under investigation for alleged inappropriate contacts with Russia, and prior to that, it was revealed that Trump’s former national security adviser Michael Flynn had spoken to Russian Ambassador to the US Sergey Kislyak about the sanctions placed on Russia late last year by then-US president Barack Obama’s administration.
Focus on substance before looks
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.5.20
China held a two-day forum on its “One Belt, One Road” initiative in Beijing last weekend to help Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) save face. The purpose of the program proposed by Xi after he took power is to expand China’s economic influence by building an empire with a system of tributary states and using foreign capital to promote its surplus goods.
Many countries are participating in the program, giving Xi a lot of face, but they are only looking for bargains. After having proposed and worked on the plan for four years, China’s main achievements are that it has sunk a lot of money into “money pits” in Pakistan, Indonesia and Africa.
The delicate alliance of Pyongyang and Beijing
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.5.11
The only way to convince North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to temporarily stop nuclear testing would be to stop providing oil, which China supplies.
However, Kim is not giving in to Chinese pressure, and as Russia seems to want to gain influence on the Korean Peninsula, he has grown bolder — North Korea’s state-owned news agency has for the first time directly criticized China, saying that their relationship is being destroyed and warning that it could lead to serious consequences.
US lets itself be played by China on North Korea
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.5.4
US President Donald Trump is now applying the basketball strategy of man-to-man marking to Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).
So far, the two have had three telephone conversations and one meeting. The first call was initiated by Xi, the other two by Trump. While Xi might seem to have the upper hand, China’s propaganda machine has said little about the calls, which suggests subterfuge.
US should take charge on N Korea
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.4.22
Under perceived pressure from the approaching USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group, North Korea did not conduct nuclear tests on Saturday last week, the nation’s “Day of the Sun” when state founder Kim Il-sung’s birth is celebrated, thus avoiding a clash.
However, the next day, North Korea did attempt to test-fire a missile. Some say this was a strategy suggested by China to allow North Korea to save face, while others say that its failure was the result of US cyberwarfare.
Diversion and ultimatum for Xi
By Paul Lin 林保華
2017.4.16
There were two main elements to the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平): A “diversion” and a “100-day ultimatum.” The initiative was in Trump’s hands, and Xi had to return home empty-handed.
Xi was only able to go through Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅) to boast about the establishment of “four mechanisms for dialogue” between China and the US, while the Chinese media fabricated news about the Taiwan issue.
Israel, Jews and US-China relations
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.3.30
Following the Chinese National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s
Political Consultative Conference this month, Beijing has engaged in some
China’s Xi must play it safe with Taiwanese
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.3.16
China has continued to provoke Taiwan. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Minister Zhang Zhijun’s (張志軍) statement at the joint meeting of the Chinese National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Consultative Political Conference in Beijing that “the road toward Taiwanese independence will end in unification” has stirred a backlash in Taiwan.
Beijing has done nothing to correct policy mistakes by the office’s misjudgement of Taiwan and the result will be that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will part ways.
Contending with Asia’s hoodlums
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.3.11
Backed by China, North Korea’s Kim dynasty has long posed a military threat
to South Korea. With help from the US, Seoul is deploying a Terminal High
Historical lessons for achieving civic unity
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.3.3
Taiwan has long been oppressed by “two Chinas”: the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC). After universal suffrage, the nation gradually divided into those who identify with the ROC as a sovereign nation independent from the PRC, and the privileged class within the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) who identify with China.
As time went on, the former began working closely with independence supporters, while the latter continued to impose the old idea that the ROC is China rather than an independent nation of Taiwanese. The situation became even more difficult when some members of the latter tried to collude with the PRC.
Trump’s East Asia diplomacy successes
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.2.18
Through a telephone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and an in-person meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, US President Donald Trump has just completed his first real contact with two of East Asia’s main players — and the world’s two largest economies after the US itself — since he assumed the presidency.
The importance of these engagements goes without saying. However, it is not clear how much China has gained.
Trump’s mistakes and the US’ role in Asia
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.2.12
As expected, as soon as US President Donald Trump took office, the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Trump also lashed out at China, Germany, Japan, Mexico and other countries. However, in his random attacks, Trump made two mistakes: He failed to distinguish major problems from minor, and he failed to distinguish political friends from foes.
By not distinguishing between major and minor issues, he failed to recognize that those countries hurt US business interests to different degrees and should be treated with different policies. The same applies to political relationships.
Burden of security as pro-China tactics rise
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.1.12
When Hong Kong lawmakers Edward Yiu (姚松炎), Nathan Law (羅冠聰) and Eddie Chu (朱凱迪), and Hong Kong democracy campaigner Joshua Wong (黃之鋒) visited Taiwan on Friday last week at the invitation of the New Power Party (NPP) they were attacked and followed by Chinese patriots from Hong Kong and Taiwan.
The protesters focused on Law and Wong, who were at the front of the “Umbrella movement,” are internationally active and are seen as “traitors” by Chinese unionists.
Chinese provocations hide its fear
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2017.1.4
If China wants to pick a fight with the US, the most vulnerable time for the US would be before the White House handover. However, China does not dare to actually pick a fight, so it is doing its best to be provocative to show that it is the boss and satisfy its own people’s vanity.
The most obvious action occurred in South China Sea, in the waters near Subic Bay in the Philippines, where it seized an underwater drone from right under the nose of a US surveillance vessel, despite warnings to stop.
Taipei plays role in Sino-US ties
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.12.21
Regarding the future of Sino-US relations, let us refer to two passages from The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower by Michael Pillsbury, an American China expert: “On the right are US defense hawks, as well as trade protectionists such as [US president-elect] Donald Trump. These are the people who are to be ‘frozen out’ by the Chinese government and marginalized wherever possible,” and “It has long been known among China scholars that the people most trusted to report on China are those academics, journalists and writers who have been denied visas into the country.”
Trump and his national security team belong to this group.
Preparing for Chinese retaliation
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.12.10
The telephone conversation between President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and US president-elect Donald Trump did not happen without planning. This is the unavoidable conclusion after reading Trump’s constant tweets in response to criticism from US media and to refute the clamoring Chinese media.
The call took the world by surprise and showed that Trump is not afraid to flout tradition, while he does not think of China as a regular country, but rather a rogue state that needs a lesson. To make the point, he put the spotlight on Taiwan for all the world to see.
Who will rise to replace the US?
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.11.26
US president-elect Donald Trump announced that his first task on entering the
White House would be to withdraw from the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership
Reshaping military relations with the US
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.9.22
China’s co-opting of six Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and two independent local government leaders and the change in the relationship between the US and the Philippines are creating the conditions required to strengthen the military relationship between the US and Taiwan.
Beijing has co-opted these pan-blue leaders in a vain attempt at using the so-called “1992 consensus” to “colonize” and split Taiwan. It is a serious threat to national security and Taiwan must respond.
China aims to divide and conquer
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.8.17
With US presidential nominees Hillary Rodham Clinton and Donald Trump battling it out for the top job, the US lacks the energy and focus to take care of international affairs; the last thing Washington wants at the moment is for a war to flare up.
This explains the White House’s muted response to the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s verdict on the South China dispute between China and the Philippines: It confined itself to calling for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and warning each side to refrain from doing anything that might intensify the conflict.
Tsai Ing-wen faces tough road to reform
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.7.30
President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) government has been dealing with a host of complex national affairs, both expected and unexpected, testing its ability. The public has high expectations of Tsai’s government, but they should also have an understanding of its difficulties, because it is the first time that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is implementing large-scale reform of the old system.
Thanks to its peaceful democratic revolution, Taiwan has avoided bloodshed, but a side effect has been a difficulty in implementing reforms, as it has been necessary to follow the procedures of the existing system, such as the handling of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) assets. Although the legislature recently passed the Act Governing the Handling of Ill-gotten Properties by Political Parties and Their Affiliate Organizations (政黨及其附隨組織不當取得財產處理條例), implementing the act could bring difficulties, in particular when it comes to the required cooperation of the judiciary.
