林保華

Who will rise to replace the US?
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.11.26

US president-elect Donald Trump announced that his first task on entering the

White House would be to withdraw from the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership

Reshaping military relations with the US
By Paul Lin 林保華

Taipei Times  2016.9.22

China’s co-opting of six Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and two independent local government leaders and the change in the relationship between the US and the Philippines are creating the conditions required to strengthen the military relationship between the US and Taiwan.

Beijing has co-opted these pan-blue leaders in a vain attempt at using the so-called “1992 consensus” to “colonize” and split Taiwan. It is a serious threat to national security and Taiwan must respond.

China aims to divide and conquer
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.8.17

With US presidential nominees Hillary Rodham Clinton and Donald Trump battling it out for the top job, the US lacks the energy and focus to take care of international affairs; the last thing Washington wants at the moment is for a war to flare up.

This explains the White House’s muted response to the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s verdict on the South China dispute between China and the Philippines: It confined itself to calling for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and warning each side to refrain from doing anything that might intensify the conflict.

Tsai Ing-wen faces tough road to reform
By Paul Lin 林保華

Taipei Times  2016.7.30

President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) government has been dealing with a host of complex national affairs, both expected and unexpected, testing its ability. The public has high expectations of Tsai’s government, but they should also have an understanding of its difficulties, because it is the first time that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is implementing large-scale reform of the old system.

Thanks to its peaceful democratic revolution, Taiwan has avoided bloodshed, but a side effect has been a difficulty in implementing reforms, as it has been necessary to follow the procedures of the existing system, such as the handling of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) assets. Although the legislature recently passed the Act Governing the Handling of Ill-gotten Properties by Political Parties and Their Affiliate Organizations (政黨及其附隨組織不當取得財產處理條例), implementing the act could bring difficulties, in particular when it comes to the required cooperation of the judiciary.

Anti-US reaction no aid in sea spat
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.7.23

The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling on the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines has had a detrimental effect on Chinese interests. The tribunal’s ruling on Tuesday last week set off a hysterical anti-US reaction in China — the product of Beijing’s deliberate policy of keeping its public misinformed.

In Taiwan, some individuals have also been fanning the flames of anti-US sentiment, saying that Taiwan has been sold out by Washington.

Ruling threatens Xi’s tenuous hold
By Paul Lin 林保華

Taipei Times  2016.7.15

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has issued its ruling over a case brought by the Philippines regarding rights in the South China Sea. The ruling upheld all the complaints made by the Philippines.

China’s actions ahead of the ruling — such as a large-scale live-fire drill in the South China Sea and attacks by academics and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) media outlets, as well as investing big sums to divide or buy off ASEAN and asking other countries to speak on its behalf — have shown that the ruling is not just the piece of “scrap paper” that Beijing claims.

Military needs to pull itself together
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.7.10

The accidental launching of a Hsiung Feng III missile exposed the problems that exist in Taiwan’s military. Although an investigation into the incident has not been completed, its outcome would basically adhere to one of two possibilities: Either military discipline is extremely lax, or the incident was the result of political factors, such as officers’ ideology or communist infiltration.

Regardless, the “one China” principle has led to low morale and a lack of aim in the military, and because of the remaining vestiges of the ties between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the military, the military no longer knows who it is fighting for.

US key to Tsai’s cross-strait policy
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taibei Tiames 2016.7.3

With her visit to Central and South America, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has initiated her “pragmatic diplomacy,” but her transit stop in Miami, Florida, stole the spotlight.

About 145km south of Florida is Cuba, whose air space Tsai flew through on her way to Panama. Not long ago, “the earth moved and the mountains shook” in Cuba when US President Barack Obama became the first US president in 55 years to visit Havana since the two nations severed ties in 1961. Did this act as encouragement for Tsai?

Tsai’s new policy and Taiwan’s position
By Paul Lin 林保華

Taipei Times  2016.5.30

In her inaugural address, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) talked about Taiwan’s role in regional stability, the international community and cross-strait relations and pledged to deepen Taiwan’s relations with the US, Japan and European nations. She also gave priority to the “new southbound policy” — and since the New Southbound Policy Office is to be run by the Presidential Office rather than the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the importance of the policy must not be ignored.

Talking about the policy, Tsai said: “We will broaden exchanges and cooperation with regional neighbors in areas such as technology, culture and commerce, and expand in particular our dynamic relationships with ASEAN and India.”

‘Cold peace’ a likely stable future
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.5.28

It was already quite certain before President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) gave her inaugural address on Friday last week that she would not use it to accept the so-called “1992 consensus,” even as threats from China and the gang of sellouts around former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) continued right until the last moment.

What many academics and experts are talking about is what will emerge in cross-strait relations now that Tsai is president. Even the Chinese government is thinking about its policies regarding Taiwan. Only grovelers like Ma are still bogged down in the mire of the “1992 consensus.”

China’s sly tricks show its lack of confidence
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.4.19
Early last month, the UN Security Council voted to toughen its sanctions on North Korea. Due to worries that China would be threatened if the US deploys the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in South Korea or even “decapitates” North Korea, Beijing this time decided to support the sanctions.

The move angered Pyongyang so much that the government-controlled media condemned not only “American imperialism,” but also a “major power” that is so concerned with saving face and status that it will not even stop at severing a “friendship sealed in blood” as it tried to secretly reach an agreement that suppresses “justice and truth.”

Economy should concern China
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Tomes 2016.4.13

On March 31, international credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook for China’s credit rating from “stable” to “negative.” Moody’s had already done this on March 2.

On April 1, General Yao Yudong (姚余棟), the director the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Research Institute of Finance and Banking, said in a speech: “From the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2018, China will enter a new normal of prosperity.”

Tsai has a gentle way belying her inner power
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.4.4

Within two weeks, president-elect Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) visited both the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, a developer of advanced weapon systems, and the Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation, a developer of aerospace and defense products. She gave talks showing expertise during both visits. These visits demonstrate that this woman can safeguard national security.

Taiwan might have disputes of ownership over certain islands and reefs with Japan and Vietnam, but it has a greater dispute over national sovereignty with China, which is seeking to annex Taiwan, so these visits were clearly pointed.

Washington bristles, China cowers
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.3.22

The US-China relationship sits atop four powder kegs: the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea; with the South China Sea the most likely cause of a direct confrontation between the two nations.

The dynamics of the relationship are changing; this time Washington is serious about confronting Beijing. As a result, China’s leaders have been forced to swallow their pride and make hasty peace initiatives to prevent conflict.

Xi threatened from within Beijing
By Paul Lin 林保華

In autumn next year, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is to convene its 19th National Congress, at which the party’s next set of leaders is to be determined. The internal power struggle is already in full swing. In January, confidantes of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) tried to assess the possibility that he would be able to establish a core of leaders around himself. The results were disappointing and might mark the beginning of Xi’s fall from power.

The joint meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which ended yesterday in Beijing, cannot hide this fact.

When it opened on March 3, the China Military Online Web site published an article criticizing the “cliqueism” of Liu Bei (劉備), a warlord during the late Eastern Han Dynasty and Three Kingdoms period in ancient China. It would appear that the word “clique” could be used to label any faction, but the article clearly points directly to Xi.

Chinese army on a war footing
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.2.21

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平)

nerves were likely stretched to breaking

Politics and judiciary need to be reformed
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.1.31

After her victory in the Jan. 16 election, president-elect Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) received congratulatory messages from the

US, Japan, Germany, the UK, Canada, Singapore and other nations. That the majority of them used the title “president” to

Election of Tsai, China crisis offer opportunity
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times 2016.1.22

President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) once proposed a “golden decade,

” a pretty slogan that resulted in a loss of sovereignty, an economic

Democratic miracle almost here
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.1.14

Taiwanese go to the ballot boxes on Saturday and mainstream media around the world are focused on the elections. This is not only because a female president looks set to be elected, but also because it will show the international community that Taiwanese voters reject unification with China. That is why it is so important that all voters who identify as Taiwanese must come out on election day to express their wishes and tell China and the world how they feel.

The following are a few things that are required to fully express the public’s opinion.

Shake-up of military in China Xi’s big problem
By Paul Lin 林保華
Taipei Times  2016.1.3

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Eric Chu (朱立倫) repeatedly criticizes Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) over her stance on the so-called “1992 consensus,” because he knows public opinion has abandoned him and he can only play the “communist scare card.” This is both shameless and ignorant.

With Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) facing problems at home, he is unable to assist the KMT, though he might be willing. Not only did Xi’s meeting with President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) fail to boost the KMT’s presidential campaign, hostile buyouts of enterprises in Taiwan’s core industries by Chinese state-run enterprises have also caused a backlash.